Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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After a Break in the Weather Over the Weekend into the New Week, Another Upper Level Low Pressure Disturbance Moves Overhead Late Tomorrow Through Wednesday with Renewed Rain and Storm Chances; More Sunshine For Late Week; Clouds Break with a Little More Sunshine Late Week into the Weekend (Monday / 25 May 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Mo/25May (Memorial Day)..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Tu/26May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times at Night
We/27May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times; Some Flooding Issues Possible
Th/28May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/29May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Sa/30May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/24May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 1.25 to 1.40 inches of rainfall, with isolated higher amounts,
for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period which ends next
Monday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
After talking rain for our weekend forecast, weather ended up being pretty
quiet with a fair amount of sunshine across our area. I expect this to continue
through our Memorial Day holiday with afternoon high temperatures closer
to where they should be this time of year.
Another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will cross the IH35
corridor late tomorrow through Wednesday with renewed rain and storm chances.
While there could be some periods of heavier rain, total rainfall amounts should
remain in the manageable range.
Once the mid week system passes, we’ll see clouds break with more sunshine
with only slim rain chances for the end of the week into next weekend.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven days..
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
MONDAY – Memorial Day (25May)….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch or less.
Afternoon high around 90.
Light wind becoming easterly wind 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 9pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.05 inch.
Overnight low around 70.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.
TUESDAY (26May)….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat in the afternoon.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
Calm wind becoming southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Increasing clouds becoming cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain early then 80% late, will average 0.20 inch.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (27May)….
Cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Periods of heavy rain with some urban flooding issues possible.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain, will average 0.75 to 1.00 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before midnight.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.15 inch or less.
Overnight low around 70.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.
THURSDAY (28May)….
Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat in the afternoon.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch or less.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
Calm wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.
FRIDAY (29May)….
Partly cloudy early then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 90.
Calm wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after 9pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY (30May)….
Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low 90s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat late.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the low to mid 70s.
Light south southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY (31May)….
Partly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch or less.
Afternoon high in the low 90s.
Light southerly wind becoming southerly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 01 June 2026 through Sunday / 07 June 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Below Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 22 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 06 June 2026 through Friday / 19 June 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal
