Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Clouds Return with Rain and Storm Chances Back in the Forecast for Late Tonight On and Off Through the Balance of the Seven Day Forecast Period; A Cold Front by Wednesday night with Another One on Sunday (Tuesday / 05 May 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Tu/05May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Night
We/06May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Th/07May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/08May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Sa/09May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/10May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Mo/11May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 0.75 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period which ends next Tuesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Low pressure approaching from the west and another cold front moving into
Texas from the north will result in increased clouds and slim rain chances by
late tonight into Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to cross the area
by Wednesday night with cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday with rain
and storm chances continuing as a series of upper level low pressure
disturbances cross the area.
Even though there is still considerable uncertainty, early indications are that an
upper level low pressure area will approach the area from the west Saturday and
Sunday with the clouds and rain chances continuing as temperatures warm
once again. However, given the projected slower movement of this system, it
may be that the highest rain chances may hold off until Sunday night into Monday
morning as the main upper level low pressure area and an associated cold front
moves through the area.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High to very high forecast confidence through Thursday..
– Medium forecast confidence Friday through the weekend..
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
TUESDAY (05May)….
Mostly cloudy early then partly cloudy by afternoon.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy
Isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat, after midnight.
Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.05 inch or less.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY (06May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy with a cold front passing just after midnight.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the low to mid 60s.
Southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting north northeasterly 5 to 10 mph late.
THURSDAY (07May)….
Mostly cloudy and cooler.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 70s.
North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low around 60.
Northeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph by 9pm then calm overnight.
FRIDAY (08May)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 70s.
Calm wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 60s.
Easterly wind decreasing and becoming light overnight.
SATURDAY (09May)….
Mostly cloudy early then partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 60s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (10May)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy as a cold front passes through the area.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Southerly wind shifting northerly 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
MONDAY (11May)….
Partly to mostly cloudy and not quite as warm.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 12 noon.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.15 inch.
Afternoon highs in the upper 70s.
Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 12 May 2026 through Monday / 18 May 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 01 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 16 May 2026 through Friday / 29 May 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
