Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Near to Slightly Above Seasonal Temperatures Continue Through the Upcoming Weekend; Rain and Storm Chances Reappear for Much of Next Week as a Slow Moving Upper Level Disturbance Approaches and Moves Across Texas from the West (Friday / 15 May 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
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.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Fr/15May..
No Weather Threats Expected
Sa/16May..
No Weather Threats Expected
Su/17May..
No Weather Threats Expected
Mo/18May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Tu/19May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times
We/20May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times
Th/21May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 1.25 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period which ends next Thursday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
With southerly surface winds continuing, a dry and stable weather pattern continues
with near to slightly above averages temperatures over the next few days.
An approaching upper level low pressure disturbance will move eastward toward
Texas by late Sunday night into next week with the chance of rain and storms to
increase for our IH35 corridor. In addition to the lightning threat, there are still some
indications that periods of heavier rain are possible particularly once we get into the
middle part of next week.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High to very high forecast confidence through Sunday..
– High forecast confidence forecast Sunday night through Monday..
– Medium confidence forecast Monday night through Thursday..
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
FRIDAY (15May)….
Morning low clouds then becoming partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low 90s.
Southerly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then low clouds late.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts.
SATURDAY (16May)….
Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low 90s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy late.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
SUNDAY (17May)….
Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy.
Afternoon high around 90.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy late
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
MONDAY (18May)….
Morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after 12 noon.
Rain, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.15 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.15 inch.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY (19May)….
Cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY (20May)….
Cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Overnight low in the low to mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
THURSDAY (21May)….
Cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain, will average 0.50 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 22 May 2026 through Thursday / 28 May 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 08 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 23 May 2026 through Friday / 05 June 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
