Troy Kimmel's Weather Updates

Another Unseasonably Warm Day Today; A Strong Cold Front Arrives After Midnight Tonight with Slim Rain Chances Before Clearing Skies and Cooler Temperatures by the Weekend; Clouds and At Least Slim Rain Chances Return by Middle Part of Next Week (Thursday / 15 October 2026)

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tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
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.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Th/15Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Fr/16Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Sa/17Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Su/18Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Mo/19Oct..
No Weather Hazards Expected

Tu/20Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms

We/21Oct..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms

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7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
0.10″ inch or less of rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the
7 day forecast period ending on Wednesday.

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

Southerly surface winds continue to result in increased low level moisture and higher humidity and warmer than average temperatures over our area.

Big changes are in store beginning tonight as we see a weather pattern change for Texas that will continue into tomorrow as a broad upper level low pressure trough passes west to east into the central plains states. We will see slim rain chances beginning in the predawn hours tomorrow as the upper level trough helps to support a stronger cold front as it dives southeastward through Texas. Following the cold frontal passage, surface high pressure characterized by drier and cooler conditions will be in place by late tomorrow through the weekend and even into next week.

Preliminary guidance suggests increased clouds and rain chances may return to our forecast by the middle part of next week.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high to very high forecast confidence now through Monday
– A medium to high forecast confidence Tuesday into Wednesday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

THURSDAY (15Oct)….
Morning low clouds then partly cloudy with a cold front passing after midnight tonight.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight tonight.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of late night rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in low 90s.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 60s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting north northeasterly and becoming gusty after midnight.

FRIDAY (16Oct)….
Mostly cloudy before 9am then partly cloudy. Windy and cooler.
Widely scattered rain showers before 8am.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of morning rain, will average less than .05 inch.
Afternoon high around 80.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 50s.
North northeasterly wind 15 to 25 mph with some gusts to 35 mph.

SATURDAY (17Oct)….
Partly cloudy early then mostly clear with winds slowly diminishing.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 70s.
Overnight low in the low to mid 50s.
North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph early before slowly diminishing.

SUNDAY (18Oct)….
Mostly clear.
Afternoon high in the upper 70s to around 80.
Overnight low in the upper 50s.
Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph early then light easterly at night.

MONDAY (19Oct)….
Mostly clear in the morning then partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 60s.
Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southeasterly at night.

TUESDAY (20Oct)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY (21Oct)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 60s.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 22 October 2026 through Wednesday / 28 October 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of  Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 09 October 2026)
Valid Saturday / 24 October 2026 through Friday / 06 November 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal

 

 

 

 

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