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Troy Kimmel

UT University / Incident Response Meteorologist

Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu

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Slowly Increasing Rain and Storm Chances by Late Tonight then Peaking Late Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night As a Cold Front Passing Tomorrow Night into Sunday with Cooler Temperatures to Follow as Sunshine Returns Early Next Week; Clouds Increase by Middle Part of Next Week (Fr/19Apr2024 Update)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 19 April 2024

… Not Available Today …

Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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On weekends and other University holidays when this site is not updated,
I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast
for metro Austin at this link.

In times of severe and/or inclement weather, you can follow the latest area
watch, advisory and warning updates from our local NWS Austin-San Antonio
office through their website.. or by reading the actual text products (always
the most recent at the top of the page) through this link which is courtesy of
the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Always check the date and time of issuance
of these NWS text products since, in periods of tranquil weather, the latest
products may be outdated and/or expired.

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Threat Late Tonight with Any Isolated Thunderstorm …

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With the arrival of an initial weak cold front early this Friday morning, atmospheric instability increases and combines with rich Gulf moisture and atmospheric lift from passing upper air low pressure disturbances, we’ll see still slim rain and storm chances beginning by late tonight. The cold front will hold up stationary to our south and will wash out by tonight.

(2) Rain and thunderstorm chances will ramp up quickly by afternoon tomorrow as a strong upper level disturbance finally moves across the area allow the cold front to surge southeastward across our IH35 corridor late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night with the best chance of rain and storms even potentially heavier rain along with a threat of lightning. As the front moves southeast to the Texas coast, lingering post frontal clouds and rain and isolated storm chances will continue along with much cooler temperatures on late Saturday night into Sunday.

(3) As surface high pressure builds into our area in the wake of the front, clouds will break by Sunday night into Monday with sunshine and a little warmer temperatures returning for the first half of next week.

(4) Clouds and humidity increases again by the middle part of next week.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, 1.00 to 2.00 inch of rainfall, with isolated heavier totals, is forecast for our IH35 corridor over the next seven day forecast period (specifically, focusing on the period late tonight through Sunday morning).

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High forecast confidence overall.

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 19 April 2024

TODAY (19Apr)…. Mostly cloudy and not as warm. High 75. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 66. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY (20Apr)…. Cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 1pm then becoming more numerous after 4pm with an associated lightning risk. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location before noon then increasing to 30% by 2pm then 70% after 5pm, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 75. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy and cooler as a cold front passes in the evening. Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. Heavy rain at times. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1.00 to 1.50 inch with isolated higher totals to 2 to 3 inches. Low 53. Northerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY (21Apr)…. Mostly cloudy and cooler. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly before 8am. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average an additional 0.25 inch. High 66. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts becoming more northeasterly after midnight.

MONDAY (22Apr)…. Partly cloudy. High 73. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southeasterly by late afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 57. Light south southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY (23Apr)…. Partly cloudy. High 80. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY (24Apr)…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY (25Apr)…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 26 April 2024 through Thursday / 02 May 2024
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Fr/19Apr)………………………… 6:59 am / 8:01 pm
Tomorrow (Sa/20Apr)…………………. 6:58 am / 8:02 pm

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