Troy Kimmel's Weather Updates

Other than a Slim Thunderstorm Chance later Today/Tonight, A Stable Weather Pattern Continues Through the Next Seven Days with Periods of Dangerous Afternoon Heat Stress Expected; With Medium Forecast Confidence, Very Little Rainfall Locally as a Weakening Gulf Tropical System Moves Westward into the Upper Texas Coast and Washes Out (Wednesday / 22July2026)

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

We/22Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
A Few Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Will Result in
a Strong Straight Line Wind and Lightning Threat (Mainly to Northeast)

Th/23Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Fr/24Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Sa/25Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Su/26Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Mo/27Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Tu/28Jul..
Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

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7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
little if any rainfall is currently forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over
the 7 day forecast period ending on Tuesday.

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

As upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues to
hold over the area, I expect the dry weather pattern to continue for most areas
through the seven day forecast period.

Over the coming days, afternoon into evening temperatures combined with
atmospheric moisture will result with elevated to dangerous heat index and
wet bulb globe temperature values. Please remember to remain hydrated and to
“take it easy” if you’re outdoors in the afternoon and evening hours. The NWS
Austin-San Antonio Office has issued a Extreme Heat Warning for the IH35
corridor today.

Watching for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, mainly to our
northeast, later today into tonight as a result of a weakening cold front moving
southwestward into north and central Texas. There will be a possibility of strong
straight line thunderstorm wind and lightning threat if something develops.

Not much change in my mind regarding the tropical cyclone over the northern
Gulf. For now into tomorrow, the upper level high area pressure will continue
to hold forth over north Texas and will act to create a rather hostile atmospheric
environment as the tropical system is projected to weaken and move westward
along or just onshore of the Louisiana coast. NWS/National Hurricane Center
guidance suggests the system will weaken further and maybe even dissipate as
the remnants move westward into Texas and actually passes close to Austin on
Friday. With medium forecast confidence, I think we will see an increase in cloud
cover Thursday night into Friday, but, at this point, I do not expect any
precipitation locally with most precipitation south of the IH10 corridor closer to
the Texas coast. I’ll continue to watch this carefully in case things do change.
Stay tuned.

Once the remnants of the dying tropical system passes to our west, the upper level
high pressure area will once again build overhead with a dry summer weather
pattern continuing through the weekend and into next week.

LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence through Thursday.
– A medium forecast confidence for Thursday night through Friday night.
– A very high forecast confidence for Saturday through Tuesday.

—

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

WEDNESDAY (22Jul)….
… NWS Extreme Heat Warning in Effect …
Sunshine.
Isolated thunderstorms after 4pm mainly to our northeast.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance, will be minimal.
Afternoon high around 104.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 113 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 90 F.
Light wind becoming east northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Isolated thunderstorms before 11pm mainly to our northeast.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance, will be minimal.
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the low 80s.
Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

THURSDAY (23Jul)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 102.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 110 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
Light wind becoming east northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear early then becoming partly cloudy.
Overnight low around 81.
Light easterly wind becoming calm.

FRIDAY (24Jul)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Light north northeasterly wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low around 80.
Light south southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY (25Jul)…
Partly cloudy early them mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s to around 80.
Light southerly wind.

SUNDAY (26Jul)….
Sunshine.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 105 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 86 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY (27Jul)…
Sunshine.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 105 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT….
Clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY (28Jul)….
Sunshine.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to near 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 106 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 29 July 2026 through Tuesday / 04 August 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/17Jul2026)
Valid Saturday / 01 August 2026 through Friday / 14 August 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal

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