Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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Increased Moisture and Rain Chances Continue in Areas Mainly East of the IH35 Corridor Through Late Week; A Drier Weather Pattern Returns Over the Weekend and into Next Week; Renewed Rain Chances by Wednesday; Even with Some Potential Rainfall Amounts Mainly in Our Eastern Areas, Wildfire Danger Continues to Increase (Thursday / 03 September 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Th/03Sep
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Fr/04Sep..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/05Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/06Sep..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Mo/07Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/01Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/02Sep
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
0.25 inch or less of rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day
forecast period ending on Wednesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
As a little better moisture continues move into our area from the east, we’ll see
rather slim rain chances east of the IH35 corridor through tomorrow.
By Friday night, a drier and more stable weather pattern returns to our area.
This pattern will persist into next week.
A more unstable situation may develop by next Wednesday when I will include
slim rain chances once again.
We’ll continue with elevated to dangerous afternoon and evening heat stress
over the next seven days. A NWS Heat Advisory may once again become
necessary Friday and beyond Over the coming days, please stay hydrated and
take it easy out there in the afternoon into evening hours.
In addition, even with some rain chances today into tomorrow, we continue
to see drought conditions worsen overall over the area and vegetation continues to
dry out, wildfire danger continues to slowly increase over our area. So far, winds
have been relatively light so the danger has been limited. As we wrap up summer
in September and head into the fall months, this danger will likely continue to get
worse assuming no precipitation (which I’m not really seeing in longer range climate
outlooks). Another thing we need to monitor are any early fall season cold fronts and
any stronger northerly winds that might occur with frontal passage. As I mention, at
this time, I do not see either of these things happening in the next couple of weeks,
but I will continue to monitor things closely. Burns bans have been posted for our
IH35 counties so I would strongly discourage any outdoor burning.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high forecast confidence today into tomorrow (reference rain chances)
– A very high forecast confidence Saturday through Wednesday
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
THURSDAY (03Sep)….
Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average .10 inch or less.
Afternoon high around 102.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 106 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than .05 inch.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY (04Sep)….
Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average .05 inch or less.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 106 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than .05 inch.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY (05Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 101.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light south southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY (06Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY (07Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY (08Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear early becoming partly cloudy after midnight.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (09Sep)….
Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than .05 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 106 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 10 September 2026 through Wednesday / 18 September 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 28 August 2026)
Valid Saturday / 12 September 2026 through Friday / 25 September 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal
