Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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After Rain Showers and Thunderstorms over the Texas Hill Country Sunday and Sunday Night and Remnants of the Disturbance Remaining Overhead, I Will Add Rain and Storm Chances Today; Otherwise, A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues for our Area; Afternoon into Evening Elevated Heat Stress Values and Wildfire Danger Continues (Updated Midday Monday / 21 September 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera.
On weekends and other holidays when this site is not updated, I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast for metro Austin.
Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx.
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so
it can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
—-
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Mo/21Sep..
Lightning and Gusty Wind Threat with any Thunderstorms
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/22Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/23Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Th/24Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Fr/25Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/26Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/27Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
0.10 inch or less rainfall amounts, on average, are forecast for our IH35 corridor
counties over the 7 day forecast period ending on Sunday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
In the wake of hill country rain showers and thunderstorms late yesterday, the
latest short range high resolution model guidance and other data suggests that
the disturbance and associated instability remains overhead. When we add
afternoon heating to the mix this afternoon, those models suggest widely scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms will develop after 3pm and then continue until
early evening when they will die out.
Otherwise, a dry and stable late summer weather pattern appears to build back
into the area tomorrow and continue through the remainder of the seven day
forecast period.
With elevated afternoon and evening heat stress over the coming days,
a friendly reminder to please stay hydrated and take it easy out there in the
afternoon into evening hours.
In addition, we continue to see drought conditions worsen overall over the area and
vegetation continues to dry out, wildfire danger continues to increase over
our area. So far, winds have been relatively light so the danger has been
limited. As we wrap up summer and head into the fall months, this danger will
likely continue to get worse assuming no precipitation. Another thing we need to
monitor are any early fall season cold fronts and any stronger northerly winds
that might occur with any frontal passage. Burns bans continue for our IH35
counties so I strongly discourage any outdoor burning.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high to very high forecast confidence today through tomorrow
– A very high forecast confidence for Thursday through Sunday
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
MONDAY (21Sep)….
Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat from 3pm to 8pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch or less.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100 (with max afternoon HI 105F/max afternoon WBGT 88F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light east southeasterly at night.
Winds will become strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TUESDAY (22Sep)….
Becoming partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100 (with max afternoon HI 106F/max afternoon WBGT 88F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Light wind early becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon then light at night.
WEDNESDAY (23Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 106F/max afternoon WBGT 88F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon then light east southeasterly at night.
THURSDAY (24Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 106F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Light easterly wind early then easterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon then light easterly at night.
FRIDAY (25Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 104F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light east southeasterly at night.
SATURDAY (26Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 104F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (27Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. then becoming clear to partly cloudy at night.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 104F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 28 September 2026 through Sunday / 04 October 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 18 September 2026)
Valid Saturday / 03 October 2026 through Friday / 16 October 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Above Normal
