Troy Kimmel's Weather Updates

A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Will Remain in Place Today Before a Tropical System Moves Northwest From the Gulf into Southeast Texas with Some Increase in Moisture and Rain Chances Tomorrow into Thursday in Areas East of the IH35 Corridor; A Drier Weather Pattern Returns for the Friday Through the Weekend and into Next Week; Even with Some Potential Rainfall Amounts in Our Eastern Areas, Wildfire Danger Continues to Increase (Tuesday / 01 September 2026)

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tkimmel@utexas.edu
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Tu/01Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

We/02Sep
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Th/03Sep
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Fr/04Sep..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Sa/05Sep..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Su/06Sep..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Mo/07Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

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7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
0.25 inch or less of rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day
forecast period ending on Monday.

—

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

Upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues
over the area today.

Tonight into mid week, the upper level high will shift more eastward. As
this occurs, the tropical disturbance over the northwest Gulf moves
northwestward into southeast Texas (around High Island) by this evening.
The disturbance is then projected to move northwestward into north central
Texas before dissipating. While we will see a little better moisture move into
our area with some limited rain chances east of the IH35 corridor, it still looks
like we stay on the drier west side of the system.

By Thursday, as the tropical system passes to our northwest and dissipates,
a drier and more stable weather pattern returns to our area. This pattern will
persist Friday through the weekend into next week.

We’ll continue with elevated to dangerous afternoon and evening heat stress
over the next seven days. A NWS Heat Advisory may once again become
necessary Friday and beyond. Over the coming days, please stay hydrated and
take it easy out there in the afternoon into evening hours.

In addition, even with some rain chances tomorrow into Thursday, we continue
to see drought conditions worsen overall over the area and vegetation continues to
dry out, wildfire danger continues to slowly increase over our area. So far, winds
have been relatively light so the danger has been limited. As we wrap up summer
in September and head into the fall months, this danger will likely continue to get
worse assuming no precipitation (which I’m not really seeing in longer range climate
outlooks). Another thing we need to monitor are any early fall season cold fronts and
any stronger northerly winds that might occur with frontal passage. As I mention, at
this time, I do not see either of these things happening in the next couple of weeks,
but I will continue to monitor things closely. Burns bans have been posted for our
IH35 counties so I would strongly discourage any outdoor burning.

LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence today and tonight
– A medium to high forecast confidence tomorrow into Thursday (reference rain chances)
– A very high forecast confidence Friday through Monday

—

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

TUESDAY (01Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 101.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Light winds early becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT….
Becoming partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

WEDNESDAY (02Sep)….
Partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms
with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average .15 inch or less.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming a little more variable by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average trace amounts.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (03Sep)….
Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average .10 inch or less.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light south southeasterly wind.

FRIDAY (04Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 101.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY (05Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 101.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light south southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY (06Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY (07Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 08 September 2026 through Monday / 14 September 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 28 August 2026)
Valid Saturday / 12 September 2026 through Friday / 25 September 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal

 

 

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