Troy Kimmel
UT University / Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Temperatures Stay Above Seasonal Averages For Much of the Seven Day Forecast Period Ahead.. A Weak Cold Front Expected with a Better Chance of Rain for Early Next Week Followed by More Sunshine by Mid into Late Week.. (Fr/22Sep2023 Update)
Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 22 September 2023
Not Available Today….
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tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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In times of severe and/or inclement weather, you can follow
the latest area watch, advisory and warning updates from our
local NWS Austin-San Antonio office through their website…
www.weather.gov/ewx … or by reading the actual text products
(always the most recent at the top of the page) through this link
which is courtesy of the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Always
check the date and time of issuance of these NWS text products
since, in periods of tranquil weather, these products may be
outdated and/or expired.
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures Resulting in Higher Heat Stress Values …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) Warmer than average afternoon temperatures through much of the next seven day period.
(2) The latest guidance continues to suggest that a weak cold front will approach and move through the area Monday morning into midday. In a medium to high confidence forecast, I will continue better rain chances now that we’re seeing a little more consistency in the model and manual guidance. Even with a cold frontal passage, I expect temperatures behind the front to remain unseasonably warm.
(3) Once again, a drier weather pattern develops as high pressure aloft becomes more established by mid into latter parts of next week. Temperatures may rebound a couple of degrees as this occurs.
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, I expect 0.50 inch of rainfall for the IH35 corridor over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high forecast confidence through Sunday then a medium to high confidence forecast for much of next week.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 22 September 2023
TODAY (22Sep)…. Early morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Afternoon heat index values 102 to 105 F. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with some low clouds after midnight. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY (23Sep)…. Early morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Afternoon heat index values 101 to 104 F. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight with some low clouds after midnight. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY (24Sep)…. Early morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. Afternoon heat index values 103 to 106 F. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after 7pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Low 75. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY (25Sep)…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a weak cold front passes during the morning into midday hours. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. High 95. Southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more east northeasterly by afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 73. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY (26Sep)…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch or less. High 93. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (27Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 94. Light east southeasterly wind becoming more southerly by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY (28Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 95. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 29 September 2023 through Thursday / 04 October 2023
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22Sep)…………………………………………. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (22Sep)…………………………………………… 7:27 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23Sep)……………………………………………… 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (23Sep)………………………………………………. 7:26 pm
Today's Forecast
Five Day Planner
