Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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Rain and Storm Chances Through Tomorrow Before A More Stable Weather Pattern Returns Friday through the Weekend and Into Next Week (Wednesday / 15 July 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera.
On weekends and other holidays when this site is not updated, I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast for metro Austin.
Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx.
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so
it can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
We/15Jul..
Flood Watch… Some Periods of Heavier Rain
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Th/16Jul..
Flood Watch Before 7pm… Some Periods of Heavier Rain in Daytime Hours
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/17Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/18Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/19Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Mo/20Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/21Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
an average 1.00 inch rainfall with isolated higher totals, is forecast for
our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period ending on Tuesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Our increased cloud cover as well as higher rain and thunderstorm chances
continue into Thursday and it is in this time period that I expect the heavier
rainfall totals area wide especially in areas over the Texas Hill Country and
the Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande River where a flood watch continues.
As I pointed out yesterday, the tropical air mass in place will result in rainfall
rates that will be quite efficient with several inches of rain possible in areas to
the west in relatively short periods of time. Afternoon high temperatures, with
the more extensive cloud cover and precipitation in place, will remain below
seasonal averages through tomorrow.
Rain chances will drop from the forecast by late tomorrow night as our
atmosphere becomes more stable once again as clouds break and afternoon high
temperatures rebound back to seasonal averages Friday through the weekend
and into early next week.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high forecast confidence today through tomorrow night
– A high to very high forecast confidence Friday through Sunday.
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
WEDNESDAY (15Jul)….
… Flood Watch …
Mostly cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain, will average 0.50 inch.
Afternoon high in the 80s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
… Flood Watch …
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
Light southeasterly wind.
THURSDAY (16Jul)….
… Flood Watch …
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
… Flood Watch Until 7pm …
Becoming partly cloudy.
Widely scattered evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY (17Jul)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 102 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 84 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY (18Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 102 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 85 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (19Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 103 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 85 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY (20Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 104 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 86 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY (21Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 105 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 22 July 2026 through Tuesday / 28 July 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/10Jul2026)
Valid Saturday / 25 July 2026 through Friday / 07 August 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal
