Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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Rain and Storm Chances Back in the Forecast into the Weekend; Temperatures Warming Saturday into Sunday Before Another Cold Front Passes; A Quiet Start to Next Week with Temperatures Near Seasonal Averages (Thursday / 07 May 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera.
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Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
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.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx.
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.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Th/07May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms at Night
Fr/08May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Sa/09May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/10May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms Sunday Night
Mo/11May..
No Weather Threats Expected
Tu/12May..
No Weather Threats Expected
We/13May..
No Weather Threats Expected
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 1.50 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period which ends next Thursday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
A cold front moved southward through the area yesterday with cooler
temperatures today into tomorrow with rain and storm chances continuing
as a series of upper level low pressure disturbances cross the area.
More upper level low pressure disturbances will approach the area from the west
Saturday and Sunday with the clouds and rain/thunderstorm chances continuing
as temperatures warm once again through the weekend.
Sunday, as the main upper level low pressure area moves east of the area,
another associated surface cold front moves southward across through the area.
Skies will clear with drier air and a more stable atmosphere taking hold for
the first part of next week with temperatures near seasonal averages.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– Medium to high forecast confidence through Sunday night..
– High to very high forecast confidence Monday into Wednesday..
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
THURSDAY (07May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 70s.
Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat after midnight.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the low to mid 60s.
Northeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph early evening then calm overnight.
FRIDAY (08May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.40 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 70s.
Calm wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
Easterly wind decreasing and becoming light overnight.
SATURDAY (09May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.75 inch.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 80s.
Light wind early becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.20 inch.
Overnight low in the upper 60s to around 70.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm late.
SUNDAY (10May)….
Mostly cloudy early then becoming partly cloudy as a cold front passes by afternoon.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 4pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.75 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts shifting north northeasterly 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the mid 60s.
Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.
MONDAY (11May)….
Partly cloudy in the morning then mostly sunny. Not quite as warm.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 80s.
Light northeasterly wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 60s.
Light easterly wind.
TUESDAY (12May)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
Light wind early then becoming southerly 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.
WEDNESDAY (13May)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 14 May 2026 through Wednesday / 20 May 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 01 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 16 May 2026 through Friday / 29 May 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
