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Troy Kimmel

UT University / Incident Meteorologist

Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

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Clouds and Rain Chances Continued (Tu/11May2021)

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(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 11 May 2021

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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Lightning Possible with Any Thunderstorms Today into Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) In a pretty classic overrunning pattern, additional upper level disturbances will move eastward over the area with gulf moisture streaming northward and overrunning the slightly cooler air at the surface. As a result of the atmospheric lift produced, rain showers and thunderstorms look to become scattered to numerous across the area today through tomorrow.

(2) A drier and more stable weather pattern will prevail with increased sunshine for Thursday into Friday.

(3) Another set of upper air disturbances will combine with low level moisture and atmospheric instability to produce scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for late Saturday into Sunday.

South central Texas forecast rainfall amounts over the next seven days, as predicted by the NWS/Weather Prediction Center, will average 1 to 2 inches.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 11 May 2021

TODAY…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with a lightning threat. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″ to 0.50″. High 77. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with a lightning threat. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.50″ to 1.00″. Low 62. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the morning with a lightning threat. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.25″. Rain chances decreasing in the afternon. High 67. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Decreasing clouds. Low 58. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Becoming partly cloudy. High 80. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 56. Light easterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 83. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 61. Light southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 83. South southeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 83. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 18 May 2021 through Monday / 24 May 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (11 May)………………………………………… 6:39 am
Sunset this evening (11 May)………………………………………….. 8:15 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (12 May)…………………………………………….. 6:39 am
Sunset tomorrow (12 May)……………………………………………… 8:16 pm

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