Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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Rain Chances Continue Into Saturday as the Weak Mid Level Remains of Tropical Cyclone Edouard Move West Southwestward as It Diminishes; A Drier Weather Pattern Returns Late Weekend and into Next Week; Renewed Rain Chances by Wednesday; Even with Some Potential Rainfall, Wildfire Danger Continues to Increase (Friday / 04 September 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Fr/04Sep..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/05Sep..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/06Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Mo/07Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/08Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/09Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Th/10Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
0.25 inch or less of rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day
forecast period ending on Thursday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
The remnants of tropical cyclone Edouard are hanging around a little
longer than I anticipated as the mid level remains of the system shift more
west southwestward into our area. As a result, we’ll see some rain and storm
chances through tomorrow.
By Saturday night, a drier and more stable weather pattern returns to our area.
This pattern will persist well into next week.
We’ll continue with elevated afternoon and evening heat stress
over the next seven days. Over the coming days, please stay hydrated and
take it easy out there in the afternoon into evening hours.
In addition, even with some rain chances today into tomorrow, we continue
to see drought conditions worsen overall over the area and vegetation continues to
dry out, wildfire danger continues to slowly increase over our area. So far, winds
have been relatively light so the danger has been limited. As we wrap up summer
in September and head into the fall months, this danger will likely continue to get
worse assuming no precipitation (which I’m not really seeing in longer range climate
outlooks). Another thing we need to monitor are any early fall season cold fronts and
any stronger northerly winds that might occur with frontal passage. As I mention, at
this time, I do not see either of these things happening in the next couple of weeks,
but I will continue to monitor things closely. Burns bans have been posted for our
IH35 counties so I would strongly discourage any outdoor burning.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high to very high forecast confidence through Thursday
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
FRIDAY (04Sep)….
Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.15 inch or less.
Afternoon high around 99.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 104 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Light east southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY (05Sep)….
Mostly sunny with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.15 inch or less.
Afternoon high around 99.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Light south southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY (06Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb 4 to 8 to 10 mph.
Light wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph .
MONDAY – LABOR DAY (07Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.
TUESDAY (08Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 101.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear early becoming partly cloudy after midnight.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (09Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the uper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear early becoming partly cloudy after midnight.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
Thursday (10Sep)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 107 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 11 September 2026 through Thursday / 19 September 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 28 August 2026)
Valid Saturday / 12 September 2026 through Friday / 25 September 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal
