Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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After a Few Isolated Rain Showers and Storms This Afternoon and Evening, A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern is Expected Through the Balance of the Next Six Days with More Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon into Evening Heat Stress Developing (Monday / 10 August 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Mo/10Aug..
Lightning Threat with Any Afternoon or Evening Thunderstorms
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/11Aug..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/12Aug..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Th/13Aug..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Fr/14Aug..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/15Aug..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/16Aug..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
even with isolated thunderstorms later today along and east of the IH35
corridor, little if any rainfall is currently forecast for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period ending on Sunday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
After a couple of days of dealing with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms
that have developed in the afternoon over the Texas coast plains and then moved
northwestward into the IH35 corridor before dissipating before sunset, I’m
throwing in the towel. I will introduce very slim chance of rain this afternoon
into this evening for the IH35 corridor with all activity diminishing by sunset.
Consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precipitation.
Otherwise, upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will
start to strengthen overhead tomorrow through the balance of the seven day
forecast period. This will result in a more stable pattern (and less influence from
the Gulf) meaning a dry pattern tomorrow through the weekend.
Low level humidity levels will continue through the balance of the seven day
forecast period resulting in higher afternoon and evening heat stress temperatures
particularly for Wednesday into Friday.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high forecast confidence today.
– A very high forecast confidence for Tuesday through Sunday.
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
MONDAY (10Aug)….
Brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny.
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with a lighting threat after 4pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain, will be trace amounts.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 104 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly clear.
Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with a lighting threat before 730pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain, will be trace amounts.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY (11Aug)….
Brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 105 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (12Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 106 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY (13Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 101.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY (14Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY (15Aug)…
Brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 106 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (16Aug)….
Brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 106 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 17 August 2026 through Sunday / 23 August 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/07Aug2026)
Valid Saturday / 22 August 2026 through Friday / 04 September 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal
