Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues; Afternoon into Evening Elevated to Dangerous Heat Stress Values and Wildfire Danger Continues (Wednesday / 09 September 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
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—-
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
We/09Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Th/10Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Fr/11Sep..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/12Sep..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/13Sep..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Mo/14Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/15Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
little or no rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over
the 7 day forecast period ending on Tuesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
A dry and stable late summer weather pattern continues. A few isolated rain
showers could develop with daytime heat tomorrow afternoon between the
IH35 corridor and the coast but my confidence is not high enough to mention
in this forecast.
There are some initial signs of a weather pattern chance, namely a more
unstable weather pattern and perhaps a better chance of rain, by the middle
and latter part of next week just beyond the seven day forecast period. I’ll
continue to look at this more closely in tomorrow’s update.
With elevated to dangerous afternoon and evening heat stress over the next
seven days, a friendly reminder to please stay hydrated and take it easy out
there in the afternoon into evening hours. Friday into the weekend look to be
most hazardous in regards to afternoon heat stress values.
In addition, we continue to see drought conditions worsen overall over the area and
vegetation continues to dry out, wildfire danger continues to increase over
our area. So far, winds have been relatively light so the danger has been
limited. As we wrap up summer and head into the fall months, this danger will
likely continue to get worse assuming no precipitation. Another thing we need to
monitor are any early fall season cold fronts and any stronger northerly winds
that might occur with any frontal passage. At this point, I do not see a cold frontal
passage over the next seven to ten days, but I will continue to monitor things closely.
Burns bans continue for our IH35 counties so I would strongly discourage any
outdoor burning.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence through Tuesday
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
WEDNESDAY (09Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 101 (with max afternoon HI 107F/max afternoon WBGT 89F)..
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light southeasterly at night.
THURSDAY (10Sep)….
Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 101 (with max afternoon HI 107F/max afternoon WBGT 90F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY (11Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 101 (with max afternoon HI 108F/max afternoon WBGT 90F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light southerly at night.
SATURDAY (12Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 102 (with max afternoon HI 109F/max afternoon WBGT 90F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph at night.
SUNDAY (13Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 101 (with max afternoon HI 109F/max afternoon WBGT 90F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph at night.
MONDAY (14Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 108F/max afternoon WBGT 89F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph at night.
TUESDAY (15Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s to around 100 (with max afternoon HI 107F/max afternoon WBGT 89F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph at night.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 16 September 2026 through Tuesday / 22 September 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 04 September 2026)
Valid Saturday / 19 September 2026 through Friday / 02 October 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
