Troy Kimmel
UT University / Incident Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
Troy’s Audio Weather Webcast for Thursday / 19 April 2018….
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Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 19 April 2018
… Rain / Thunderstorm Chances Friday Night into Saturday …
… Cold Front Passes Saturday Night …
… Sunshine Returns for Sunday into the New Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a cold front extends from the southeastern USA to southern Louisiana to just off the Texas coast then onshore again over south Texas then into northern Mexico. High pressure, to the north of the front, is centered over the central plains states. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are north northeasterly.
On the upper air map… a series of upper level low pressure disturbances is embedded in a rather zonal (west-to-east) wind flow over the USA. The first disturbance is over the northeastern USA with another stronger one over Nevada and California. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are westerly 50 to 55 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
The front, which moved through the area in the midday hours yesterday, is moving off the Texas coast this morning.
Our next upper level low pressure disturbance and associated stronger cold front is still expected to approach the area beginning tomorrow night and will move through the area by Saturday night. I expect rain shower and thunderstorm activity beginning Friday night with chances peaking Saturday into Saturday afternoon as the system moves eastward. The latest NWS/Storm Prediction Center guidance has reduced the severe weather risk for Saturday to “marginal” so I will continue the possibility for a few stronger thunderstorms locally, with a possible hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind threat, for Saturday into Saturday afternoon with the chance of thunderstorms decreasing by evening. Based on the information above, the NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance has pulled back on the forecast rainfall amounts.. now suggesting rainfall of 1/4 inch locally.
Once the cold front passes later Saturday night with reduced rain chances, skies will clear with plenty of sunshine and less humid conditions for Sunday into the first half of next week.
Have a good Thursday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Thursday / 19 April 2018
TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 77. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then becoming partly to mostly cloudy after 11pm. Low 58. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 75. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers mainly after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/10th inch or less. Low 61. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly before 4pm. A 60% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 77. East southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming more southerly by late afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by late night. Rain chances decreasing to 30% in the evening with rain chances decreasing to less than 20% after 10pm; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Low 56. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts by evening as the front passes.
SUNDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 55. Light north northeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 78. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming easterly by afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light easterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 80. Light easterly wind becoming south southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59. Light south southeasterly winds.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 April 2018 through Wednesday / 02 May 2018…
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19 April)………………………………………. 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (19 April)………………………………………… 8:01 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 April)…………………………………………… 6:58 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 April)……………………………………………. 8:02 pm
Doppler Weather Radar
In Case This Image is UNAVAILABLE, use this Image
Courtesy / National Weather Service
