Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Some Rain and Storm Chances Back in the Forecast Into Late Week and the Weekend; A Cold Front by Wednesday night with Another One on Sunday Night (Wednesday / 06 May 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
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at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
We/06May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Th/07May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/08May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Sa/09May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/10May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms Sunday Night
Mo/11May..
No Weather Threats Expected
Tu/12May..
No Weather Threats Expected
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 0.60 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period which ends next Wednesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Low pressure approaching from the west and another cold front moving into
Texas from the north will result in increased clouds and relatively low
rain chances through the balance of the week and through the weekend.
The cold front is forecast to cross the area tonight with cooler temperatures
Thursday and Friday with rain and storm chances continuing as a series of
upper level low pressure disturbances cross the area.
Another upper level low pressure area will approach the area from the west
Saturday and Sunday with the clouds and rain chances lingering into Saturday
as temperatures warm once again through the weekend.
The best rain chances look to return Sunday night as main upper level low
pressure area moves east of the area and an associated cold front moves
southward across through the area.
Skies will clear with drier air and a more stable atmosphere taking hold for
the first part of next week.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High confidence through Thursday night..
– Medium to high forecast confidence Friday through the weekend and into next week..
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
WEDNESDAY (06May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
Light wind early then south southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy with a cold front passing late.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the low to mid 60s.
Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting north northeasterly 4 to 8 mph late.
THURSDAY (07May)….
Mostly cloudy and cooler.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 70s.
North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low around 60.
Northeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph by 9pm then calm overnight.
FRIDAY (08May)….
Partly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high around 80.
Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 60s.
Easterly wind decreasing and becoming light southeasterly overnight.
SATURDAY (09May)….
Mostly cloudy early then partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 80s.
Light wind early becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy.
Overnight low in the upper 60s to around 70.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm late.
SUNDAY (10May)….
Mostly cloudy early then becoming partly cloudy.
Afternoon high around 90.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy as a cold front passes through the area.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch.
Overnight lows in the upper 60s.
Southerly wind shifting northerly 5 to 10 mph with a few higher gusts.
MONDAY (11May)….
A few clouds early then mostly sunny. Not quite as warm.
Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the low to mid 60s.
Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm late.
TUESDAY (12May)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon highs in the mid 80s.
Calm wind early then becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 13 May 2026 through Tuesday / 19 May 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 01 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 16 May 2026 through Friday / 29 May 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
