Troy Kimmel's Weather Updates

Rain and Storm Chances as Slow Moving Upper Level Disturbances and Weakening Cold Front Approaches; Heavier Rain Likely as Temperatures Fall a Few Degrees Beginning Mid Week and Continuing Through the Extended Memorial Day Weekend Due to Cloud Cover and Precipitation (Tuesday / 19 May 2026)

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Tu/19May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms Late Afternoon into the Night
Heavier Rain and Strong Gusty Thunderstorm Winds at Times Tuesday Night

We/20May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times

Th/21May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times

Fr/22May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times

Sa/23May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Heavier Rain at Times

Su/24May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms

Mo/25May (Memorial Day)..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms

—

7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 5 to 6 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period which ends next Monday.

—

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

With a series of approaching upper level low pressure disturbances moving eastward
through Texas and a weakening surface cold front moving southward into the state,
we’ll see the chance of rain and storms to increase for our IH35 corridor beginning later
today. A few stronger thunderstorms with strong straight line thundrstorm wind and some
hail is possible later today into tonight.

Heaviest rains are now likely in the Wednesday into Saturday time range. With this expected
precipitation, it is likely we’ll see some localized flooding by mid into late week and perhaps
even continuing through the extended Memorial Day weekend . Clouds and rain chances
are likely to continue through early next week.

With the cold front weakening and washing out overhead or just to our north along with
persistent cloud cover and the precipitation likelihood, we’ll see temperatures come down
a few degrees by mid through late week and through the weekend for our IH 35 corridor.

LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High to very high forecast confidence through the next seven days..

—

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

TUESDAY (19May)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat by afternoon.
Rain, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Heavy rain at times.
Strong winds and some hail may accompany the strongest thunderstorms.
Rain, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain, will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts becoming light late.

WEDNESDAY (20May)….
Cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain, will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
Light east southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (21May)….
Cloudy.
Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Locally heavy rainfall possible with some localized flooding.
Rain, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain, will average 1.00 to 1.50 inches.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Locally heavy rainfall possible with some localized flooding.
Rain, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain, will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch.
Overnight low around 70.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY (22May)….
Cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Locally heavy rainfall possible with some localized flooding.
Rain, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Light southerly wind.

FRIDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Overnight low around 70.
Light east southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY (23May)….
Cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Heavy rain at times.
Rain, where it occurs given a 80% chance of rain, will average 1.00 to 1.50 inches.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch.
Overnight low around 70.
Light southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY (24May)….
Cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain, will average 1.00 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch.
Overnight low around 70.
Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY – Memorial Day (25May)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rain, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 80s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 26 May 2026 through Monday / 01 June 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 15 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 30 May 2026 through Friday / 12 June 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal

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