Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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NWS Heat Advisory Issued for Later Today Through Sunday; A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Through the Seven Day Forecast Period with Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon into Evening Heat Stress; Wildfire Danger Continues to Increase Slowly (Thursday / 20 August 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Th/20Aug..
NWS HEAT ADVISORY Beginning in the Afternoon…
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Fr/21Aug..
NWS HEAT ADVISORY…
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/22Aug..
NWS HEAT ADVISORY…
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/23Aug..
NWS HEAT ADVISORY Until 7pm…
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Mo/24Aug
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/25Aug
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/26Aug..
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
no rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast
period ending on Wednesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues
through the balance of the seven day forecast period. This is resulting in a
stable pattern meaning a dry late summer weather pattern for our area.
We’ll continue with elevated to dangerous afternoon and evening heat stress
over the next seven days. A NWS Heat Advisory has been issued for our IH35
corridor beginning this afternoon and continuing until at least 7pm on Sunday.
Please stay hydrated and take it easy out there in the afternoon into evening hours.
As we continue to see drought conditions worsen over the area and vegetation
continues to dry out, wildfire danger continues to slowly increase over our area.
So far, winds have been relatively light so the danger has been limited. As we
wrap up summer in September and head into the fall months, this danger will
likely continue to get worse assuming no precipitation (which we aren’t seeing
in longer range climate outlooks). Another thing we need to monitor are early
fall season cold fronts and any stronger northerly winds that occur with their
passage. I do not see either of these things happening at this point, but I will
continue to monitor things closely. Burns bans have been posted in some of
our IH35 counties so I would strongly discourage any outdoor burning.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence through next Wednesday.
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
… Heat Advisory in Effect From 2pm Today Until 7pm Sunday …
THURSDAY (20Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 104.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 108 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph with a few higher afternoon gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY (21Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the around 104.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph with a few higher afternoon gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY (22Aug)…
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 105.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 110 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s to around 80.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (23Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 105.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 110 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 90 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s to around 80.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY (24Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 104.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY (25Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 103.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (26Aug)….
Mostly sunny.
Afternoon high around 103.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 109 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 89 F.
South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph with a few higher afternoon gusts.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 27 August 2026 through Wednesday / 02 September 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 14 August 2026)
Valid Saturday / 22 August 2026 through Friday / 04 September 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Near Normal
