Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Rain and Storm Chances Continuing Through the First Half of the New Week Before A More Stable Weather Pattern Returns Late Week (Monday / 13 July 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
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.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Mo/13Jul..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Some Periods of Heavier Rain
Tu/14Jul..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Some Periods of Heavier Rain
We/15Jul..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Some Periods of Heavier Rain
Th/16Jul..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/17Jul..
No Weather Threats Expected
Sa/18Jul..
No Weather Threats Expected
Su/19Jul..
No Weather Threats Expected
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
1.50 to 2.00 inches of rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over
the 7 day forecast period which ends on Sunday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
The upper level high has settled back northwestward over the Rockies and
this has allowed a more moist and unstable from the Gulf through the weekend
resulting in rain and storm chances returning to the forecast. In addition,
this moist and unstable air mass is combining with a weakening cold front,
moving in from the north, to further increase cloud cover as well as rain and
thunderstorm chances particularly today into Wednesday when some of the
heavier rainfall totals are likely to occur. Temperatures, in the more extensive
cloud cover, will fall a few degrees as well.
Rain chances will drop from the forecast by late Thursday into Friday through
the weekend as the atmosphere becomes more stable as clouds break and
temperatures rebound a few degrees.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high to very high forecast confidence today through Sunday.
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
MONDAY (13Jul)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 to 0.35 inch.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 97 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 83 F.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph with some higher gusts around any storms.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain, will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY (14Jul)….
Mostly cloudy.
Rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 90% chance of rain, will average 0.50 to 0.75 inch.
Afternoon high in the 80s.
Light southeasterly wind.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Light southeasterly wind.
WEDNESDAY (15Jul)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average less than 0.25 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Light southeasterly wind.
THURSDAY (16Jul)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Becoming partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY (17Jul)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 101 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 84 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY (18Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 100 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 84 F.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (19Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 100 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 84 F.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 20 July 2026 through Sunday / 26 July 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/10Jul2026)
Valid Saturday / 25 July 2026 through Friday / 07 August 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal
