Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Abundant Sunshine with a Warming Trend As We Start the New Week; Cloud Return Tonight into Tomorrow with Rain and Storm Chances Back in the Forecast for Late Tomorrow Night Through the Balance of the Seven Day Forecast Period (Monday / 04 May 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
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.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Mo/04May..
No Weather Threats Expected
Tu/05May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms Late Tuesday Night
We/06May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Th/07May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/08May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Sa/09May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/03May..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period which ends next Friday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Sunshine continues with a warming trend today.
Low pressure approaching from the west and another cold front moving into
Texas from the north will result in increased clouds and slim rain chances by
late tomorrow night into Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to cross the area
by Wednesday night with cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday with rain
and storm chances continuing as a series of upper level low pressure
disturbances cross the area.
Early indications are that an upper level low pressure area will slowly cross the
area Saturday and Sunday with the clouds and rain chances continuing as
temperatures warm once again.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High to very high forecast confidence through tomorrow..
– Medium to high forecast confidence Wednesday through the weekend..
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
MONDAY (04May)….
Mostly sunny into the afternoon then turning partly cloudy by late afternoon.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy late.
Overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY (05May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat, late.
Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.05 inch or less. .
Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY (06May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy with a cold front passing by midnight.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 60s.
Southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph late.
THURSDAY (07May)….
Mostly cloudy and cooler.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high around 70.
North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low around 60.
Northeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph by 9pm then calm overnight.
FRIDAY (08May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 70s.
Calm wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 60s.
Easterly wind decreasing and becoming light overnight.
SATURDAY (09May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
Light wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lighting threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the upper 60s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (10May)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 80s.
South southeasterly Wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 11 May 2026 through Sunday / 17 May 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 01 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 16 May 2026 through Friday / 29 May 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
