Troy Kimmel's Weather Updates

A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues Outside of Isolated Showers and Storms Mainly to Our South Southeast in the Texas Coastal Plains; Afternoon into Evening Elevated to Dangerous Heat Stress Values and Wildfire Danger Continues; A More Uncertain Situation Next Week With the Forecast Front Dying Out to the North Before Making Another Charge Southward by Wednesday into Thursday (Weekend Update)

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Sa/19Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Su/20Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Mo/21Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Tu/22Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

We/23Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Th/24Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

Fr/25Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress

—

7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
little if any rainfall amounts, on average, are forecast for our IH35 corridor
counties over the 7 day forecast period ending on Friday.

—

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

A dry and stable late summer weather pattern continues. As we’ve seen in the
recent past, a few isolated rain showers and storms could develop with daytime
heat in the afternoon hours between the Austin metro area/IH35 corridor and the
coast but my confidence is not high enough in the model signals that we’re
seeing to mention in this in my IH35 corridor forecast.

I continue with a lower confidence forecast as the weakening surface cold front
is still expected to weaken well to the north of the area by Tuesday before a second
surge southward will push the  front, as weak as it will be, south of the area by
Thursday into Friday. While temperatures may fall a few degrees and the atmosphere
will dry out a bit in the wake oft he front by Thursday, I will not use the word “cooler”
at this point.

Given my low forecast confidence regarding rain chances, I am dropping rain chances from my forecast for the seven day period ahead as the overall stable weather pattern
continues.

Meanwhile, with elevated afternoon and evening heat stress over the coming days,
a friendly reminder to please stay hydrated and take it easy out there in the
afternoon into evening hours.

In addition, we continue to see drought conditions worsen overall over the area and
vegetation continues to dry out, wildfire danger continues to increase over
our area. So far, winds have been relatively light so the danger has been
limited. As we wrap up summer and head into the fall months, this danger will
likely continue to get worse assuming no precipitation. Another thing we need to
monitor are any early fall season cold fronts and any stronger northerly winds
that might occur with any frontal passage. Burns bans continue for our IH35
counties so I strongly discourage any outdoor burning.

LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high to very high forecast confidence through the next seven days

—

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor

SATURDAY (19Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 105F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming 4 to 8 mph at night.

SUNDAY (20Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. then becoming clear to partly cloudy at night.
Afternoon high around 101 (with max afternoon HI 107F/max afternoon WBGT 89F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more southeasterly at night.

MONDAY (21Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. then becoming clear to partly cloudy at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 107F/max afternoon WBGT 89F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light southeasterly at night.

TUESDAY (22Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. then becoming partly cloudy at night.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 106F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Light wind early becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon then 4 to 8 mph at night.

WEDNESDAY (23Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night as a cold front passes.
Afternoon high in the upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 106F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
Light wind becoming easterly 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon then light southeasterly at night.

THURSDAY (24Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night. Less humid.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 103F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
East northeasterly 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon then light east northeasterly at night.

FRIDAY (25Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 90s (with max afternoon HI 102F/max afternoon WBGT 84F).
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light at night.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Saturday / 26 September 2026 through Friday / 02 October 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 18 September 2026)
Valid Saturday / 03 October 2026 through Friday / 16 October 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Above Normal

 

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