Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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Rain and Storm Chances Continue Today Before A More Stable Weather Pattern Returns Tomorrow through the Weekend and Into the New Week (Thursday / 16 July 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera.
On weekends and other holidays when this site is not updated, I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast for metro Austin.
Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx.
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so
it can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Th/16Jul..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/17Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/18Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/19Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Mo/20Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/21Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/22Jul..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
an average 0.30 inch or less rainfall forecast for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period ending on Wednesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Our rain and thunderstorm chances continue today with some higher rainfall
totals especially in areas over the Texas Hill Country and the Edwards Plateau
to the Rio Grande River. As previously pointed out, the tropical air mass in
place will result in rainfall rates that will be quite efficient with heavier totals
possible in areas to our west in relatively short periods of time. Afternoon high
temperatures, with the more extensive cloud cover and precipitation in place,
will continue to remain below seasonal averages.
Rain chances will drop from the forecast by late tonight as our atmosphere
becomes more stable once again as clouds break and afternoon high
temperatures rebound back to seasonal averages tomorrow through the
weekend and into the new week.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A high to very high forecast confidence over the next seven day period.
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
THURSDAY (16Jul)….
… Flood Watch …
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch or less.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
… Flood Watch Until 7pm …
Becoming partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 7pm.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY (17Jul)….
Partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 102 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 84 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY (18Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then partly cloudy.
Afternoon high in the low to mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 102 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 85 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (19Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 103 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 86 F.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY (20Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 104 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 86 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY (21Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 104 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 87 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY (22Jul)….
Some morning low clouds then mostly sunny.
Afternoon high in the mid to upper 90s.
Maximum afternoon maximum heat stress (HI) index 105 F.
Maximum afternoon wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 88 F.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 23 July 2026 through Wednesday / 29 July 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/10Jul2026)
Valid Saturday / 25 July 2026 through Friday / 07 August 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Below Normal
