Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Rain and Storm Chances Over the Next Seven Days in a More Unstable Environment (Wednesday / 03 June 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
We/03Jun..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Th/04Jun..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Fr/05Jun..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Sa/06Jun..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Su/07Jun..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Mo/08Jun..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Tu/09Jun..
A Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for, on average, 0.75 to 1.00 inch of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties
over the 7 day forecast period which ends Tuesday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
We’re seeing rain and storm chances in the forecast once again as the atmosphere
becomes more moist and unstable. The factors coming together include a cold weak
front which has settled into the state from the northeast as south southeasterly surface
wind flow to the south of the front increases low level moisture across the state.
In addition, a stronger upper level low pressure disturbance, from the Pacific Ocean
basin, will approach Texas from the west. This system and its counterclockwise rotation
will eject smaller disturbances which will create atmospheric lift and will result in the
enhanced rain and storm chances.
Rain chances will diminish a bit and we’ll see a bit more in the way of sunshine by
Sunday into early next week.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High to very high forecast confidence through tonight..
– A high forecast confidence Wednesday through Tuesday..
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
WEDNESDAY (03Jun)….
Partly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
Light wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Overnight low in the low to mid 70s.
Light easterly wind becoming calm.
THURSDAY (04Jun)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
Light wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the low to mid 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.
FRIDAY (05June)….
Mostly cloudy.
Numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain, will average 0.30 inch.
Afternoon high in the mid 80s.
Light wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.25 inch.
Overnight low in the low 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY (06Jun)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.15 inch.
Afternoon high in the upper 80s.
South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (07Jun)….
Morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with higher afternoon gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY (08Jun)….
Morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high around 90.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.05 inch.
Overnight low in the mid 70s.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY (09Jun)…
Morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy.
Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 0.10 inch.
Afternoon high in the low 90s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 09 June 2026 through Tuesday / 16 June 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Near Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 29 May 2026)
Valid Saturday / 13 June 2026 through Friday / 26 June 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Below Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
