Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Continues Outside of Isolated Showers and Storms Mainly to Our Southeast in the Texas Coastal Plains; Afternoon into Evening Elevated to Dangerous Heat Stress Values and Wildfire Danger Continues as We Start the New Week (Monday / 14 September 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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—-
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Mo/14Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Tu/15Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
We/16Sep
Elevated to Dangerous Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Th/17Sep
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Fr/18Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Sa/19Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
Su/20Sep..
Elevated Afternoon/Evening Heat Stress
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance and model forecasts,
little or no rainfall is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over
the 7 day forecast period ending on Sunday.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
A dry and stable late summer weather pattern continues. As we’ve seen the last
few days, a few isolated rain showers and storms could develop with daytime
heat tomorrow afternoon between the Austin metro area/IH35 corridor and the
coast but my confidence is not high enough to mention in this in my IH35 corridor
forecast.
With elevated to dangerous afternoon and evening heat stress over the next
seven days, a friendly reminder to please stay hydrated and take it easy out
there in the afternoon into evening hours. Friday into the weekend look to be
most hazardous in regards to afternoon heat stress values.
In addition, we continue to see drought conditions worsen overall over the area and
vegetation continues to dry out, wildfire danger continues to increase over
our area. So far, winds have been relatively light so the danger has been
limited. As we wrap up summer and head into the fall months, this danger will
likely continue to get worse assuming no precipitation. Another thing we need to
monitor are any early fall season cold fronts and any stronger northerly winds
that might occur with any frontal passage. At this point, I do not see a cold frontal
passage over the next seven to ten days, but I will continue to monitor things closely.
Burns bans continue for our IH35 counties so I would strongly discourage any
outdoor burning.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– A very high forecast confidence through Sunday
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
MONDAY (14Sep)….
… Heat Advisory 12 noon to 7pm …
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 101 (with max afternoon HI 107F/max afternoon WBGT 88F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph at night.
TUESDAY (15Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 102 (with max afternoon HI 107F/max afternoon WBGT 89F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph at night.
WEDNESDAY (16Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 108F/max afternoon WBGT 88F)..
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light east southeasterly at night.
THURSDAY (17Sep)….
Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 106F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the mid to upper 70s.
East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY (18Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 104F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
East southeasterly wind 5 to 10mph becoming light southeasterly at night.
SATURDAY (19Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 103F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming south southeasterly 5 to 12 mph at night.
SUNDAY (20Sep)….
Mostly sunny during the day.. mostly clear at night.
Afternoon high around 100 (with max afternoon HI 104F/max afternoon WBGT 87F).
Overnight low in the upper 70s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph at night.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 21 September 2026 through Sunday / 27 September 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 11 September 2026)
Valid Saturday / 26 September 2026 through Friday / 09 October 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation.. Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
