Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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Rain and Thunderstorms Chances On and Off Through the Weekend With Heavier Rainfall Amounts Due Saturday Through Sunday. After a Brief Break Monday, We’ll See Another Surge of Rain and Thunderstorms with Another Strong Upper Air Disturbance and Surface Cold Front Late Tuesday into Wednesday (Friday / 06 March 2026)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Fr/06Mar..
Lightning Threat from Thunderstorms
Sa/07Mar..
Lightning Threat and Heavier Rain Threat from Thunderstorms
Some Localized Urban and Small Stream Flooding Possible
Su/08Mar..
Lightning Threat and Heavier Rain Threat from Thunderstorms
Some Localized Urban and Small Stream Flooding Possible
Mo/09Mar..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
Tu/10Mar..
Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms
We/11Mar..
No Weather Threats Expected
Th/12Mar..
No Weather Threats Expected
—
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast
is for about 3.80 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties over the
7 day forecast period which ends next Thursday night.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
As a stronger upper level low pressure moves eastward into the central plains
from the Pacific Ocean and west coast, rain and thunderstorm chances return
to the forecast.
The biggest threat of widespread and heavier rain is late tonight and into
tomorrow through the weekend as a stronger upper air low pressure
disturbance moves slowly west to east overhead. I think we may see some
localized flooding problems develop by tomorrow through Sunday for our
IH35 corridor. A surface cold front will move southeastward through the area,
in the wake of the upper air low pressure disturbance, by late Saturday with
slightly cooler temperatures expected with lingering rain chances Saturday
night into Sunday.
Rain chances will decrease a bit by Sunday night into Monday before another
increase in rain and thunderstorms by the mid part of next week as a stronger
upper level low pressure and associated cold front moves through Texas late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Longer range guidance strongly suggests skies will clear along with somewhat
cooler temperatures just beyond the seven day forecast period for the latter
part of next week.
LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD …
– High to very high forecast confidence today through Sunday
– Medium to high forecast confidence Sunday night through Wednesday
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
(Updated Friday / 06 March 2026)
FRIDAY (06Mar)….
Mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after mid afternoon with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location in the afternoon, will average 0.10 inch.
High in the mid 80s.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch.
Low in the upper 60s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
SATURDAY (07Mar)….
Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Periods of heavier rain possible mainly as a cold front passes by mid to late afternoon.
Rainfall, given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1.20 inch.
High around 80.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Periods of heavier rain possible.
Rainfall, given a 90% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1.00 inch.
Low in the upper 50s.
North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (08Mar)….
Cloudy and cooler with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Periods of heavier rain possible in the morning.
Rainfall, given a 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 inch.
High around 70.
Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with a lightning threat after midnight.
Rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch.
Low in the low 60s.
Light east northeasterly wind becoming calm late.
MONDAY (09Mar)….
Mostly cloudy and warmer with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.10 inch.
High around 80.
Light winds becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.10 inch.
Low in the upper 60s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY (10Mar)….
Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.20 inch.
High around 80.
Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch.
Low in the low 60s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts becoming more southwesterly late night.
WEDNESDAY (11Mar)….
Cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 11am.
A cold front passing in the early morning hours.
Decreasing clouds mid into late morning then mostly sunny and less humid in the afternoon.
Morning rainfall, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch.
High in the upper 70s.
Southwesterly wind shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts in the early morning hours.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Low in the low 50s.
Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY (12Mar)….
Sunshine and less humid.
High in the low 70s.
Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph turning more northeasterly by afternoon.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 13 March 2026 through Thursday / 19 March 2026
Temperature… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Below Normal
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 27 February 2026)
Valid Saturday / 14 March 2026 through Friday / 27 March 2026
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
