Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
Visit NWS Tweets
Sunshine and Unseasonably Warm Temperatures Through the Weekend and Early Next Week; Rain Chances in the Forecast by the Mid into Latter Part of Next Week As an Upper Level Storm System and Surface Cold Front Approaches and Moves Across Texas by the End of Next Week
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT
University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera at THIS LINK.
On weekends and other holidays when this site is not updated,
I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast
for metro Austin at THIS LINK.
Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx .
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so
it can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) tranquil weather, the latest products may be outdated and/or expired..
—-
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Sa/15Nov..
Some Patchy Dense Morning Fog
Fire Danger Risk
Su/16Nov..
Fire Danger Risk
Mo/17Nov..
Fire Danger Risk
Tu/18Nov..
Fire Danger Risk
We/19Nov..
Lightning Threat with any Thunderstorms
Th/20Nov..
Lightning Threat with any Thunderstorms
7-DAY TEXAS TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…
No tropical weather threats to the Texas coast over the next seven days.
7-DAY RAINFALL FOR THE IH-35 CORRIDOR…
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, the forecast is for
more than 1.25 inch of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast
period which ends next Friday evening.
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
MY SEVEN DAY WEATHER THOUGHTS
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
Sunshine continues with a return southerly surface wind flow over the next few days; warming of afternoon high temperatures along with increased moisture is expected. Unfortunately, the fire weather threat continues over the area until we get appreciable precipitation.
It’s still too early to call and there is actually a little less agreement in models today compared to yesterday but I still expect a more unstable air mass to develop by late Tuesday into the middle and latter part of next week as a vigorous upper level low pressure disturbance, originating over the Pacific Ocean, moves slowly eastward and approaches and then crosses the state of Texas. If this materializes, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase and the upper air system would be followed by a stronger cold front by midday next Thursday. Stay tuned…
MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS …
A medium to high confidence forecast for the next seven days.
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
SATURDAY (15Nov)….
Patchy morning fog otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably warm.
Highs in the mid 80s.
South southwesterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT….
Mostly clear.
Lows in the mid 60s.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (16Nov)….
Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm.
Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Southerly winds 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY (17Nov)….
Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm.
Highs in the upper 80s.
South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy.
Lows in the upper 60s.
Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY (18Nov)….
Partly cloudy.
Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT….
Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy late.
A few rain showers after 10pm.
Rainfall, given a 20% chance of rain after 10pm, will average 0.10 inch or less.
Lows in the upper 60s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
WEDNESDAY (19Nov)….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 40% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch or less.
Highs in the low to mid 80s.
South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT….
Partly to mostly cloudy.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 50% chance of rain, will average 0.20 inch or less.
Lows in the mid 60s.
Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY (20Nov)….
Partly to mostly cloudy and a little cooler as a cold front passes by midday.
Scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat.
Rainfall, given a 60% chance of rain, will average 0.50 inch or less.
Highs in the upper 70s.
Southerly wind shifting northwesterly 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 21 November 2025 through Thursday / 27 November 2025
Temperature… Better Chances of Above Average
Precipitation… Better Chances of Above Average
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 7 November 2025)
Valid Saturday / 22 November 2025 through Friday / 05 December 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near Normal
tk
Today's Forecast
Five Day Planner
