Troy Kimmel
UT Office of Security and Emergency Management
Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Retired Affiliate, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
Severe Weather Alerts
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A Stable Weather Pattern Forecast, with Only Very Slim Afternoon Rain and Storm Chances, to Continue as Summer Gets Underway Tonight (Fr/20Jun2025)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx
Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT
University of Texas weather conditions and see the live camera at THIS LINK.
On weekends and other holidays when this site is not updated,
I encourage you to check out the latest NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast
for metro Austin at THIS LINK.
Remember that, in periods of severe/inclement weather, it is YOUR
responsibility to always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on X/Twitter .. @troykimmelwx .
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set AT ALL TIMES so
it can receive and activate/alarm when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html for a chronological text listing (most current
at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually)
of all NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..
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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…
Sa/21Jun… Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress.. Lightning Threat with Isolated Storms..
Su/22Jun… Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat with Isolated Storms..
Mo/23Jun… Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat with Any Isolated Storms..
Tu/24Jun… Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat with Any Isolated Storms..
We/25Jun… Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat with Any Isolated Storms..
Th/26Jun… Elevated Afternoon Heat Stress .. Lightning Threat with Any Thunderstorms..
7-DAY TEXAS TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…
No tropical threats are expected…
—
AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) An upper level ridge (think “lid on atmosphere”) continues overhead and will continue to hold through the upcoming weekend into next week. Afternoon high temperatures will combine with humidity to produce elevated afternoon heat stress levels.
(2) Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms could develop any of the next seven afternoons ahead but they generally should be east of the IH35 corridor. There are initial
indications that coverage may pick up slightly area wide by next Thursday.
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, my forecast is for less than 0.20 inch of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties over the 7 day forecast period which ends in the early morning hours next Friday.
MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through the next seven days.
—
Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
SATURDAY (21Jun)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with a localized lightning threat to the east of the IH35 corridor. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch at a few spots. Highs in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 103. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY (22Jun)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with a localized lightning threat to the east of the IH35 corridor. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch at a few spots. Highs in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 103. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY (23Jun)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with a localized lightning threat to the east of the IH35 corridor. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch at a few spots. Highs in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 103. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY (24Jun)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with a localized lightning threat to the east of the IH35 corridor. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch at a few spots. Highs in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 103. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph decreasing to 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY (25Jun)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with a localized lightning threat to the east of the IH35 corridor. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance at any given location, will average less than 0.05 inch at a few spots. Highs in the mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 102. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY (26Jun)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance at any given location, will average less than 0.20 inch. Highs in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values of 101. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 27 Jun 2025 through Thursday / 03 July 2025
Temperature… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday / 20 June 2025)
Valid Saturday / 28 June 2025 through Friday / 11 July 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Slightly Above Normal
tk
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