Troy Kimmel's Weather Updates

Unseasonably Warm Temperatures and Increased Humidity As a South Southeasterly Surface Wind Flow Returns; Except for a Potential Thunderstorm Chance Overnight, A Dry Weather Pattern Through Saturday With A Chance of Rain and Storms Back in the Forecast With a Passing Disturbance Sunday and a Cold Front Passing on Monday; Unsettled Weather with Cooler Temps and Rain Chances Lingering into Mid Week (Th/22May2025)

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
7-DAY FORECAST WEATHER HAZARDS…

Th/22May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures .. Lightning Threat 7pm to 11pm
Fr/23May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures ..
Sa/24May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures ..
Su/25May… Unseasonably Warm Temperatures .. Lightning Threat..
Mo/26May /Memorial Day/… Lightning Threat..
Tu/27May… Lightning Threat..
We/28May… Lightning Threat..

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AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) With return south southeasterly surface winds, lower clouds have moved back in overnight. However, skies will partially clear by late morning with south southeasterly winds picking up with tropical moisture from the gulf returning to the area. Some of the short range high resolution models suggest that a disturbance will approach the area by after the dinner hour tonight with any showers and/or thunderstorm activity decreasing as it approaches our area from the northwest. Other than that possibility, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected for today through Saturday with afternoon highs well above seasonal averages.

(2) A more unstable, and potentially wet, weather pattern develops Sunday with better rain and storm chances which looks to continue into Monday as an upper level low pressure disturbance passes overhead and a cold front passes by Monday afternoon. Cooler air will move into the area with lingering rain and storm chances Monday night into Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday as well.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center data and guidance, my forecast is for 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rainfall for our IH35 corridor counties through the 7 day forecast period which ends in the early morning hours next Thursday.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A high to very high confidence forecast through Saturday, then a medium to high confidence forecast Sunday through Wedneday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin, South Central Texas and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Thursday / 22 May 2025

TODAY (22May)…. Partly cloudy early the mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 96 to 99. Heat index values as high as 102 and WBGT values to 85. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat between 8pm and 12 midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Lows near 70. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong and gusty around any thunderstorms.

FRIDAY (23May)…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values as high as 102 and WBGT values to 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

SATURDAY (24May)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 90s. Heat index values as high as 102 and WBGT values to 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY (25May)…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat after noon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 0.15 inch. Highs in the mid to upper 90s. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. Lows in the low to mid 70s. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY /MEMORIAL DAY/ (26May)…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat in advance of a cold front that will passes in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.50 inch. Highs around 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts with become more southwesterly then shifting north northwesterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.30 inch or less. Lows in the mid 60s. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY (27May)…. Partly to mostly cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch or less. Highs in the low to mid 80s. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.30 inch or less. Lows in the mid 60s. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY (28May)…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch or less. Highs in the low to mid 80s. East northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 29 May 2025 through Wednesday / 04 June 2025
Temperature… Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/16May2025)
Valid Saturday / 31 May 2025 through Friday / 13 June 2025
Temperatures… Better Chances of Higher Than Normal
Precipitation… Better Chances of Near to Slightly Below Normal

AUSTIN / IH35 CORRIDOR SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Th/22May)………………………………… 6:33 am / 8:22 pm (+ 2 minutes)
Tomorrow (Fr/23May)…………………………… 6:33 am / 8:23 pm (+ 1 minutes)

tk

 

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