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Troy Kimmel

UT University / Incident Response Meteorologist

Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu

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The Cold Front That Passed Yesterday is Returning Back Northward as a Warm Front Today into Tomorrow as an Upper Air Disturbance Enhances Clouds andRain Chances; A Stronger Cold Front Will Pass Southeastward Late Monday Night with Renewed Rain Chances Followed by Cooler Temperatures and Partial Clearing (Fr/01Nov2024)

Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

On Twitter, follow me and
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@troykimmelwx

Courtesy of WeatherStem, check out the latest CURRENT
University of Texas weather conditions and see our live camera at THIS LINK.

On weekends, during the summer break and other University holidays
when this site is not updated,
I encourage you to check out the latest
NWS Austin-San Antonio forecast
for metro Austin at THIS LINK.

In times of severe and/or inclement weather, you can follow the latest area
watch, advisory and warning updates from our local NWS Austin-San Antonio
office through their WEBSITE.. or by reading the actual text products (always
the most recent at the top of the page) through THIS LINK which is courtesy of
the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Always check the date and time of issuance
of these NWS text products since, in periods of tranquil weather, the latest
products may be outdated and/or expired.

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

Lightning threat with any thunderstorms…

Drought conditions worsen with associated wildfire/grassfire danger potential.
Countywide burn bans in effect for the IH35 corridor including Travis,
Williamson and Hays Counties.

—-

NOAA / NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)
7 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE TEXAS COAST…

There are no tropical weather threats to the Texas coast over the next seven days.

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) The cold front that passed through the area yesterday is returning back northward as a warm front with cloud cover and enhanced rain chances persisting through tomorrow as an upper air disturbance, creating atmospheric lift, moves overhead.

(2) In the wake of the upper air system, well above average temperatures and minimal rain chances will persist Sunday into Monday.

(3) A stronger cold front is forecast to move into Texas by late Monday night with the front passing through our IH35 corridor after midnight. Rain and thunderstorm chances will be enhanced by the front with clouds and rain chances

(4) Following the cold front, drier and cooler air, the coolest air of the fall season so far, will move into the area for Tuesday into Wednesday as skies partially clear.

(5) Clouds will return by Thursday as another weather system approaches from the west.
At this point, I will hold off on any rain chances until I become more confident of any precipitation.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, average, but rather uncertain, rainfall of 0.75″ to 1.00″ inch is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the next seven day period.

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
An overall medium confidence forecast with lower confidence concerning rainfall amounts.

Troy’s Weather Forecast
for Austin / University of Texas and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Friday / 01 November 2024

TODAY (01Nov)…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20%chance at any given location will average 0.05 inch or less. High 82. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more easterly by late afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and more humid with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly after 11pm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30%chance at any given location will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 71. Light east southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY (02Nov)…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30%chance at any given location will average 0.15 inch or less. High 85. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20%chance at any given location will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY (03Nov)…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20%chance at any given location will average 0.10 inch or less. High 87. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20%chance at any given location will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 74. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY (04Nov)…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20%chance at any given location will average 0.10 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Thickening clouds with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes after midnight. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40%chance at any given location will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 70. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting north northwesterly after midnight.

TUESDAY (05Nov)…. A few clouds early otherwise mostly sunny, breezy, less humid and cooler. High 74. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear and much cooler. Low 52. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY (06Nov)…. Sunshine. High 76. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 58. Light east northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY (07Nov)…. Partly cloudy. High 77. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 08 November 2024 through Thursday / 14 November 2024
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK (Updated on Friday/25Oct2024)
Valid Saturday / 09 November 2024 through Friday / 22 November 2024
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Fr/01Nov)…………………………………………….. 7:45 am / 6:43 pm (- 1 minutes)
Tomorrow (Sa/02Nov)……………………………………… 7:46 am / 6:42 pm (- 1 minutes)
Sunday (03Nov)………………………………………………. 6:47 am / 5:42 pm (- 1 minutes)

tk

 

 

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