Troy Kimmel's Weather Updates

A More Stable Weather Pattern Moves In Over the Next Few Days as Drier and Cooler Air Arrives; Watching the Western Gulf of Mexico for the Potential for Tropical Weather Development by Mid into Late Next Week as Clouds and Rain Chances Increase Locally (Fr/06Sep2024)

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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NOAA / NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)
7 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE TEXAS COAST…

A west northwestward moving tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Belize is forecast to move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight into tomorrow before emerging over the Bay of Campeche and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by tomorrow midday and afternoon. After that, the northwestward moving system will potentially become better organized into a tropical depression as it moves more north northwestward through the western Gulf of Mexico.

A result, the NWS/National Hurricane Center says there is a 50% chance that the system will become a tropical cyclone by early into mid parts of next week. Based on the potential future movement, it is important that all interests along the Texas coast monitor this system closely over the next seven days.

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A non-tropical area of disturbed weather persists over the north and northwestern Gulf of Mexico as a weak frontal system remains over the area. Over the next 24 hours, a secondary push of drier and cooler air will move southward through Texas which will move the offshore front further into the Gulf of Mexico. All this occurs as more stable surface high pressure settles into Texas from the north accompanied by drier and cooler air.

(2) As the high pressure area that settles south this weekend begins to weaken and moves east of the area, a strong return of low level tropical maritime moisture will move back into our area by Tuesday and then continue through the balance of next week with clouds and rain chances returning. This part of the forecast, while more uncertain, strongly will depend on how (of if) the potential tropical disturbance over western Gulf develops and its forecast movement. While it still too early to call exact details, the potential for heavier rain appears for the latter part of next week for parts of Texas.

Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, rainfall of 0.50 to 1.00 inch is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the next seven day period (watching for those rain chances Tuesday through Thursday).

MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Very high forecast confidence through Monday falling back to a medium confidence forecast Tuesday through Thursday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast
for Austin / University of Texas and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Friday / 06 September 2024

TODAY (06Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 91. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 72. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY (07Sep)…. Sunshine. High 89. Northeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear and a little cooler. Low 65. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY (08Sep)…. Sunshine. High 87. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 61. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY (09Sep)…. Sunshine. High 88. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph with a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 65. Light east northeasterly wind early then becoming calm.

TUESDAY (10Sep)…. Mostly sunny early then increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 88. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.10 inch. Low 71. Light east southeasterly wind becoming calm late.

WEDNESDAY (11Sep)…. Mostly cloudy and more humid with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.25 inch. High 87. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.10 inch. Low 72. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY (12Sep)…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.25 inch. High 87. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 13 September 2024 through Thursday / 19 September 2024
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Fr/06Sep)………………………………………. 7:11 am / 7:47 pm (- 2 minutes)
Tomorrow (Sa/07Sep)……………………………….. 7:11 am / 7:46 pm (- 1 minutes)

tk

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