Troy Kimmel
UT University / Incident Response Meteorologist
Member, Campus Safety and Security Committee
Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography and the Environment
tkimmel@utexas.edu
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A Stable Weather Pattern Holds Today into Tomorrow; Developing Tropical Cyclone over the Western Gulf of Mexico Begins a Move to the Northeast over Next Few Days with Landfall on Upper Texas and Louisiana Coast With Our IH35 Corridor Remaining on Drier Side of the Circulation (Mo/09Sep2024)
Any questions? Contact me:
tkimmel@utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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On weekends, during the summer break and other University holidays
when this site is not updated, I encourage you to check out the latest
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In times of severe and/or inclement weather, you can follow the latest area
watch, advisory and warning updates from our local NWS Austin-San Antonio
office through their WEBSITE.. or by reading the actual text products (always
the most recent at the top of the page) through THIS LINK which is courtesy of
the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Always check the date and time of issuance
of these NWS text products since, in periods of tranquil weather, the latest
products may be outdated and/or expired.
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Hazards Expected …
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NOAA / NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC)
7 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE TEXAS COAST…
All interests along the Texas coast should be monitoring a potential tropical cyclone over the western Gulf of Mexico as it moves north then northeastward. National Weather Service watches/warnings will be necessary for parts of the Texas coast later today. The greatest impacts look to be confined to the upper Texas and adjacent Louisiana coastal areas.
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS / IH35 CORRIDOR
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) As the cooler and drier high pressure area that settled south this weekend begins to weaken and moves east of the area and a tropical system becomes better developed on the western Gulf of Mexico, a return of low level tropical maritime moisture will move back into our area by late tomorrow and then continue through the middle part of the new week with some clouds and rain chances returning but mainly in areas east of the IH35 corridor. Based on the current forecast of a stronger system tracking more into the middle and upper Texas coast (east of our area with us remaining on the drier west side), I am keeping the highest potential for rain and any heavy rain to the east of our area for the middle part of the week.
(2) A drier and more stable weather pattern returns in the wake of the gulf system by Wednesday night into Thursday .
(3) Guidance suggests that a return of moisture and some instability into our area by Sunday with a slim chance of rain.
Based on NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, rainfall of less than 0.20 inch is forecast for our IH35 corridor counties over the next seven day period (watching for those slim rain chances Tuesday night through Wednesday and again by Sunday).
MY LOCAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Very high forecast confidence through Monday night then falling back to a medium to high confidence forecast Tuesday through Saturday.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast
for Austin / University of Texas and the IH35 Corridor
Updated Monday / 09 September 2024
TODAY (09Sep)…. Sunshine. High 88. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 65. Light northeasterly wind early then becoming calm.
TUESDAY (10Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 90. Light wind becoming northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.05 inch or less. Low 73. Light east northeasterly wind becoming calm late.
WEDNESDAY (11Sep)…. Mostly cloudy and more humid with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly along and east of the IH35 corridor. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.10 inch or less. High 89. Light wind becoming northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm mainly along and east of the IH35 corridor. Rainfall, where it occurs given a less than 20% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.05 inch or less. Low 71. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY (12Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 91. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. Light northeasterly wind.
FRIDAY (13Sep)…. Sunshine. High 94. Light winds becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and more humid. Low 74. Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY (14Sep)…. Mostly sunny. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 73. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY (15Sep)…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location will average 0.05 inch or less. High 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 16 September 2024 through Sunday / 22 September 2024
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNRISE/SUNSET TIMES…..
Today (Mo/09Sep)………………………………………. 7:13 am / 7:43 pm (- 1 minutes)
Tomorrow (Tu/10Sep)………………………………… 7:13 am / 7:42 pm (- 1 minutes)
Wednesday (We/11Sep)……………………………… 7:13 am / 7:41 pm (- 1 minutes)
tk
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